Potential extinction risk of Juniperus phoenicea under global climate change: Towards conservation planning
DOKPE
- El-Barougy, Reham F. Damietta University, Egypt
- Dakhil, Mohammed A. University of Lisbon, Portugal
- Halmy, Marwa Waseem A. Alexandria University, Egypt
- Cadotte, Marc University of Toronto Scarborough, Ontario, Canada
- Dias, Susana University of Lisbon, Portugal
- Farahat, Emad A. Helwan University, Cairo, Egypt
- El-keblawy, Ali University of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
- Bersier, Louis-Félix ORCID University of Fribourg
- 2023
Published in:
- Global Ecology and Conservation. - Amsterdam : Elsevier B.V.. - 2023, vol. 46, no. e02541, p. 1-14
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Ecology
Ecology
Evolution
Behavior and Systematics
Ensemble modelling
IUCN Red List
Critically endangered
Extent of occurrence
Area of occupancy
English
Global change effects on species are most pronounced when there is a large mismatch between past climate conditions, and the present climate, and this chasm will grow as global change proceeds without mitigation. Global change encompasses the alteration of temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide and these drivers can both increase the risk of species extirpation, and extinction. Juniperus phoenicea is an endemic plant species in the Mediterranean region of high conservation concern. Ensemble distribution models and the potential impact of future climate scenarios revealed that temperature, isothermality, and precipitation are the only significant bioclimatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of J. phoenicea. To study the potential impact of global change, we constrained the SDMs with a combination of two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios in the near (2030) and far (2090) future, together with two dispersal scenarios (full and limited). After removing incompatible regions based on current land-use distribution, the comparison of the current and future areas of occupancy revealed strong declines in the distribution of J. phoenicea. Applying the IUCN criteria, the species is predicted in all scenarios to be up-listed from the currently "least-concern" status to the "vulnerable", and potentially to the "critically endangered" status under the highest emission scenario in 2090. The range shifts predicted by our analysis draws attention to regions with stable distribution, and others predicted to become favorable for the species establishment. This information is essential for future conservation planning, including afforestation and reforestation programs.
- Faculty
- Faculté des sciences et de médecine
- Department
- Département de Biologie
- Language
-
- English
- Classification
- Ecology and biodeversity
- License
- CC BY
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
-
- DOI 10.1016/j.gecco.2023.e02541
- ISSN 2351-9894
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/328455
Statistics
Document views: 19
File downloads:
- 2023_globalecolconserv_el-barougy.pdf: 51