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phd_zumoberhausj_A.pdf
Doctoral thesis

The causal power of the possible : navigating complexity and uncertainty in adapting forests to climate change in the Swiss Alps

DOKPE

  • Fribourg (Switzerland) : Université de Fribourg, 2026

1 ressource en ligne (xi, 265 pages) ; 1 fichier pdf

PhD: Université de Fribourg (Suisse), 18.06.2026

forest management
climate change
uncertainty
complexity
critical realism
English Forests provide essential services such as timber production, recreation, and protection against natural hazards, yet they adapt only slowly to rapidly changing climatic conditions. This thesis examines forest adaptation to climate change (FACC) in Valais, Swiss Alps, to understand how socio-ecological change is interpreted, managed, and negotiated in practice.The study addresses a gap between forest science, which increasingly conceptualises forests as complex adaptive systems, and social science approaches that often treat uncertainty primarily as a matter of perception. Drawing on critical realism, the thesis instead understands uncertainty as a fundamental condition of action. It introduces the concept of the possible as an analytical lens to examine how actors navigate multiple potential futures rather than viewing uncertainty as a deficit.Empirically, the research is based on an abductive discourse analysis of interviews and documents from Valais. Three main findings emerge. First, foresters work in a complex and uncertain environment that encourages continual reflection on forest ecosystems and their own knowledge. Second, forestry practice relies on long-term trial-and-error processes whose outcomes often remain unknown for decades, yet action continues despite incomplete knowledge. Third, this adaptive practice is constrained by socio-political expectations that prioritise stability, rationalisation, and measurable outcomes, limiting engagement with alternative futures.The thesis argues for greater recognition of the necessity of acting under uncertainty. It calls for rethinking forestry goals and evaluation beyond measurable results and contributes to broader debates on society–nature relations by emphasising both the limits of human knowledge and humanity’s embeddedness within the natural world.
Faculty
Faculté des sciences et de médecine
Department
Département des Géosciences
Language
  • English
Classification
Meteorology, climatology
Notes
  • Bibliographie
License
CC BY
Open access status
green
Identifiers
Persistent URL
https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/336358
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