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Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change

  • Marzeion, Ben Institute of Geography, University of Bremen Bremen Germany - MARUM‐Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen Bremen Germany
  • Hock, Regine Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA
  • Anderson, Brian Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand
  • Bliss, Andrew Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA
  • Champollion, Nicolas Institute of Geography, University of Bremen Bremen Germany - Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, CNRS, IRDUniversity Grenoble Alpes Grenoble France
  • Fujita, Koji Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan
  • Huss, Matthias Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) Birmensdorf Switzerland - Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg Fribourg Switzerland
  • Immerzeel, Walter W. Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
  • Kraaijenbrink, Philip Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
  • Malles, Jan‐Hendrik Institute of Geography, University of Bremen Bremen Germany - MARUM‐Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen Bremen Germany
  • Maussion, Fabien Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck Innsbruck Austria
  • Radić, Valentina Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
  • Rounce, David R. Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks AK USA
  • Sakai, Akiko Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan
  • Shannon, Sarah School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol Bristol UK
  • Wal, Roderik Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
  • Zekollari, Harry Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW)ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) Birmensdorf Switzerland - Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands - Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium
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    24.04.2020
Published in:
  • Earth’s Future. - 2020, vol. 8, no. 7
English Glacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.
Faculty
Faculté des sciences et de médecine
Department
Département de Géosciences
Language
  • English
Classification
Hydrology
License
License undefined
Identifiers
Persistent URL
https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/308799
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