A Bayesian ice thickness estimation model for large-scale applications
- Werder, Mauro A. Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Huss, Matthias Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland - Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- Paul, Frank Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Dehecq, Amaury Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
- Farinotti, Daniel Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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13.12.2019
Published in:
- Journal of Glaciology. - 2020, vol. 66, no. 255, p. 137–152
English
Accurate estimations of ice thickness and volume are indispensable for ice flow modelling, hydrological forecasts and sea-level rise projections. We present a new ice thickness estimation model based on a mass-conserving forward model and a Bayesian inversion scheme. The forward model calculates flux in an elevation-band flow-line model, and translates this into ice thickness and surface ice speed using a shallow ice formulation. Both ice thickness and speed are then extrapolated to the map plane. The model assimilates observations of ice thickness and speed using a Bayesian scheme implemented with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which calculates estimates of ice thickness and their error. We illustrate the model's capabilities by applying it to a mountain glacier, validate the model using 733 glaciers from four regions with ice thickness measurements, and demonstrate that the model can be used for large-scale studies by fitting it to over 30 000 glaciers from five regions. The results show that the model performs best when a few thickness observations are available; that the proposed scheme by which parameter-knowledge from a set of glaciers is transferred to others works but has room for improvements; and that the inferred regional ice volumes are consistent with recent estimates.
- Faculty
- Faculté des sciences et de médecine
- Department
- Département de Géosciences
- Language
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- English
- Classification
- Geology
- License
- License undefined
- Identifiers
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- RERO DOC 328199
- DOI 10.1017/jog.2019.93
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/308366
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