The diversity of population responses to environmental change
- Colchero, Fernando Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 5230 Odense M Denmark
- Jones, Owen R. Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 5230 Odense M Denmark
- Conde, Dalia A. Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 5230 Odense M Denmark
- Hodgson, David Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Cornwall Campus, Penryn CornwallTR10 9EZUK
- Zajitschek, Felix Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Sydney NSW2052Australia
- Schmidt, Benedikt R. Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Winterthurerstrasse 190 CH‐8057 Zurich Switzerland
- Malo, Aurelio F. Department of Zoology University of Oxford OxfordOX2 6GG UK
- Alberts, Susan C. Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology Duke University Durham NC27708 USA
- Becker, Peter H. Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte 21 D‐26386 WilhelmshavenGermany
- Bouwhuis, Sandra Institut of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte 21 D‐26386 WilhelmshavenGermany
- Bronikowski, Anne M. Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology Iowa State University 251 Bessey Hall Ames IA USA
- Vleeschouwer, Kristel M. Centre for Research and Conservation Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp Koningin Astridplein Antwerpen Belgium
- Delahay, Richard J. National Wildlife Management Centre Animal and Plant Health Agency Woodchester Park Nympsfield GloucestershireGL10 3UJ UK
- Dummermuth, Stefan Info Fauna Karch UniMail Bâtiment G, Bellevaux 51 2000 NeuchâtelSwitzerland
- Fernández‐Duque, Eduardo Department of Anthropology Yale University New Haven CT06511 USA
- Frisenvænge, John Amphi Consult Sciencepark NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10 DK9220 Aalborg Denmark
- Hesselsøe, Martin Amphi Consult Sciencepark NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10 DK9220 Aalborg Denmark
- Larson, Sam Department of Anthropology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA USA
- Lemaître, Jean‐François Université Lyon 1 CNRS UMR 5558 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive F‐69622 Villeurbanne France
- McDonald, Jennifer Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Cornwall Campus, Penryn CornwallTR10 9EZUK
- Miller, David A.W. Department of Ecosystem Science and Management Pennsylvania State University 411 Forest Resources Building University Park PA16802 USA
- O'Donnell, Colin Department of Conservation Te Papa Atawhai PO Box 4715 Christchurch8140 New Zealand
- Packer, Craig College of Biological Sciences Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior University of Minnesota 123 Snyder Hall, 1475 Gortner Ave Saint Paul MN55108 USA
- Raboy, Becky E. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Toronto 25 Willcocks Street Toronto ON Canada M5S 3B2
- Reading, Chris J. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology CEH Wallingford Benson Lane, Crowmarsh, Gifford, Wallingford OxfordshireOX10 8BB UK
- Wapstra, Erik School of Biological Sciences University of Tasmania Private Bag 5 Hobart TAS Australia
- Weimerskirch, Henri Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé CNRS 79360 Villiers en Bois France
- While, Geoffrey M. Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé CNRS 79360 Villiers en Bois France
- Baudisch, Annette Department of Mathematics and Computer Science University of Southern Denmark Campusvej 55 5230 Odense M Denmark
- Flatt, Thomas Department of Biology University of Fribourg Ch. du Musée 10 1700 Fribourg Switzerland
- Coulson, Tim Department of Zoology University of Oxford OxfordOX2 6GG UK
- Gaillard, Jean‐Michel Université Lyon 1 CNRS UMR 5558 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive F‐69622 Villeurbanne France
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09.12.2018
Published in:
- Ecology Letters. - 2019, vol. 22, no. 2, p. 342-353
English
The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.
- Faculty
- Faculté des sciences et de médecine
- Department
- Département de Biologie
- Language
-
- English
- Classification
- Ecology and biodeversity
- License
- License undefined
- Identifiers
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- RERO DOC 323783
- DOI 10.1111/ele.13195
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/307306
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