Semi-automated calibration method for modelling of mountain permafrost evolution in Switzerland
- Marmy, Antoine Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Rajczak, Jan Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
- Delaloye, Reynald Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Hilbich, Christin Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Hoelzle, Martin Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Kotlarski, Sven Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
- Lambiel, Christophe Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
- Noetzli, Jeannette Department of Geography. University of Zurich, Switzerland
- Phillips, Marcia WSL, Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, Davos, Switzerland
- Salzmann, Nadine Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Staub, Benno Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
- Hauck, Christian Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
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15.11.2016
Published in:
- The Cryosphere. - 2016, vol. 10, no. 6, p. 2693–2719
English
Permafrost is a widespread phenomenon in mountainous regions of the world such as the European Alps. Many important topics such as the future evolution of permafrost related to climate change and the detection of permafrost related to potential natural hazards sites are of major concern to our society. Numerical permafrost models are the only tools which allow for the projection of the future evolution of permafrost. Due to the complexity of the processes involved and the heterogeneity of Alpine terrain, models must be carefully calibrated, and results should be compared with observations at the site (borehole) scale. However, for large-scale applications, a site- specific model calibration for a multitude of grid points would be very time-consuming. To tackle this issue, this study presents a semi-automated calibration method using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) as implemented in a 1-D soil model (CoupModel) and applies it to six permafrost sites in the Swiss Alps. We show that this semi-automated calibration method is able to accurately reproduce the main thermal condition characteristics with some limitations at sites with unique conditions such as 3-D air or water circulation, which have to be calibrated manually. The calibration obtained was used for global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM)-based long-term climate projections under the A1B climate scenario (EU-ENSEMBLES project) specifically downscaled at each borehole site. The projection shows general permafrost degradation with thawing at 10 m, even partially reaching 20 m depth by the end of the century, but with different timing among the sites and with partly considerable uncertainties due to the spread of the applied climatic forcing.
- Faculty
- Faculté des sciences et de médecine
- Department
- Département de Géosciences
- Language
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- English
- Classification
- Hydrology
- License
- License undefined
- Identifiers
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- RERO DOC 278551
- DOI 10.5194/tc-10-2693-2016
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/unifr/documents/305366
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