Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.
- Lee W Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
- Kim Y Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
- Sera F Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Gasparrini A Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Park R School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
- Michelle Choi H School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Prifti K Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
- Bell ML School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Abrutzky R Faculty of Social Sciences, Research Institute Gino Germani, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aries, Argentina.
- Guo Y Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
- Tong S Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
- de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Nascimento Saldiva PH Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Lavigne E School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
- Orru H Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
- Indermitte E Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
- Jaakkola JJK Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
- Ryti NRI Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
- Pascal M Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, Saint Maurice, France.
- Goodman P School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
- Zeka A Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK.
- Hashizume M Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
- Honda Y Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
- Hurtado Diaz M Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
- César Cruz J Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
- Overcenco A Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova.
- Nunes B Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal.
- Madureira J Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; EPIUnit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Lisbon, Portugal.
- Scovronick N Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
- Acquaotta F Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
- Tobias A Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDAEA, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
- Vicedo-Cabrera AM Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
- Ragettli MS Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
- Guo YL Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.
- Chen BY National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.
- Li S Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
- Armstrong B Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Zanobetti A Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Schwartz J Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Kim H Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: hokim@snu.ac.kr.
- 2020-11-07
Published in:
- The Lancet. Planetary health. - 2020
English
BACKGROUND
Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.
METHODS
DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.
FINDINGS
The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.
INTERPRETATION
This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.
FUNDING
Korea Ministry of Environment.
Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.
METHODS
DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.
FINDINGS
The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.
INTERPRETATION
This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.
FUNDING
Korea Ministry of Environment.
- Language
-
- English
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
-
- DOI 10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30222-9
- PMID 33159878
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/53106
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