Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate.
- Carlson CJ Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- Burgio KR Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, USA.
- Dougherty ER Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- Phillips AJ Department of Invertebrate Zoology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013, USA.
- Bueno VM Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, USA.
- Clements CF Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
- Castaldo G Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- Dallas TA Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
- Cizauskas CA Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- Cumming GS ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
- Doña J Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain.
- Harris NC Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
- Jovani R Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain.
- Mironov S Zoological Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Universitetskaya Embankment 1, Saint Petersburg 199034, Russia.
- Muellerklein OC Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- Proctor HC Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E9, Canada.
- Getz WM Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
- 2017-09-16
Published in:
- Science advances. - 2017
English
Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.
- Language
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- English
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
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- DOI 10.1126/sciadv.1602422
- PMID 28913417
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/258874
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