The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe.
- Jerez S Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
- Tobin I Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France.
- Vautard R Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France.
- Montávez JP Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
- López-Romero JM Department of Physics, University of Murcia, 30100 Murcia, Spain.
- Thais F Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), CEA/DEN/DANS, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France.
- Bartok B Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
- Christensen OB Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
- Colette A Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), 60550 Verneuil en Halatte, France.
- Déqué M Météo-France/CNRM, CNRS/GAME, 31057 Toulouse, France.
- Nikulin G Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden.
- Kotlarski S Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
- van Meijgaard E Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3731 GA De Bilt, The Netherlands.
- Teichmann C Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), D-20095 Hamburg, Germany.
- Wild M Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
- 2015-12-15
Published in:
- Nature communications. - 2015
English
Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.
- Language
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- English
- Open access status
- gold
- Identifiers
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- DOI 10.1038/ncomms10014
- PMID 26658608
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/167964
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