How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold: a multi-country analysis.
- Sera F Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Armstrong B Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Tobias A Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain.
- Vicedo-Cabrera AM Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Åström C Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
- Bell ML School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Chen BY National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.
- de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Matus Correa P Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile.
- Cruz JC Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
- Dang TN Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
- Hurtado-Diaz M Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
- Do Van D Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
- Forsberg B Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
- Guo YL National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan.
- Guo Y Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
- Hashizume M Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
- Honda Y Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
- Iñiguez C Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Environmental Health Research Joint Reseaech Unit FISABIO-UV-UJI CIBERESP, University of València, València, Spain.
- Jaakkola JJK Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
- Kan H Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
- Kim H Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
- Lavigne E School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
- Michelozzi P Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy.
- Ortega NV Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile.
- Osorio S Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Pascal M Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France.
- Ragettli MS Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.
- Ryti NRI Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
- Saldiva PHN Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
- Schwartz J Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Scortichini M Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy.
- Seposo X Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
- Tong S Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China.
- Zanobetti A Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
- Gasparrini A Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- 2019-03-01
Published in:
- International journal of epidemiology. - 2019
Temperature
cities
climate
epidemiology
heat
mortality
Body Temperature
Built Environment
Cities
Cold Temperature
Environment
Hot Temperature
Humans
Mortality
Plants
Risk Factors
Socioeconomic Factors
English
BACKGROUND
The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators.
METHODS
We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities.
RESULTS
Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat.
CONCLUSIONS
This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.
The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators.
METHODS
We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities.
RESULTS
Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat.
CONCLUSIONS
This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.
- Language
-
- English
- Open access status
- green
- Identifiers
-
- DOI 10.1093/ije/dyz008
- PMID 30815699
- Persistent URL
- https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/114381
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