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An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis.

  • Boboc IA Financial Engineering Section, Swiss Finance Institute at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • Dinică MC
  • 2013-11-09
Published in:
  • PloS one. - 2013
Algorithms
Investments
English The objective of this research is to examine the efficiency of EUR/USD market through the application of a trading system. The system uses a genetic algorithm based on technical analysis indicators such as Exponential Moving Average (EMA), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Filter that gives buying and selling recommendations to investors. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods. Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).
Language
  • English
Open access status
gold
Identifiers
Persistent URL
https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/111952
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