Borges, Roberto Evelim Penha Dória Neto, Adrião Duarte Meier, Andreas Dias, Marco Antonio Guimarães 2017-07-01 This paper presents the COG-FPOM, a model based on the Fuzzy Pay-Off Method (FPOM). The FPOM is a scenario-based real option valuation method that uses fuzzy numbers as possibility distributions. The paper shows an unexpected result generated by the original FPOM, in which the real option would have a negative value. It further analyses its reasons and suggests a way to overcome it, by using the center of gravity (COG) instead of the possibilistic mean to summarize a fuzzy number. The overall work is an ongoing project that aims to apply the presented model to support the abandonment decision of petroleum producing fields – an initial attempt together with its preliminary outcomes are shown here. Although not concluded, the COG-FPOM and its pilot results indicate a good potential for the sequence of the project. application/pdf https://folia.unifr.ch/global/documents/305904 https://folia.unifr.ch/documents/305904/files/IWP17_01_diuf.pdf eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess License undefined info:eu-repo/classification/udc/004 COG-FPOM: adapted fuzzy pay-off method for real options valuation : application in the abandonment decision of petroleum producing fields http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ws